Copenhagen Must Deliver Emissions Cuts at
or Beyond Current Proposals to Keep Below 2 Degrees - UNEP Press Release
Joint Statement from the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and
the Environment, the United Nations Environment Programme, Ecofys, Climate
Analytics, the Sustainability Institute, the European Climate Foundation
and ClimateWorks.
Recent independent analyses of current mitigation proposals on the table
in Copenhagen by Nicholas Stern, the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP), the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Ecofys,
Climate Analytics, the Sustainability Institute (C-ROADS), the European
Climate Foundation and ClimateWorks (Project Catalyst) all point to the
same conclusion: the negotiations must deliver the high-end of current
proposals, and stretch beyond them, if the world is to have a reasonable
chance of containing warming to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, or
the 1.5°C goal of many developing nations.
Copenhagen, 9 December 2009 - There is a narrow window of opportunity to
have the possibility of achieving the global political and scientific
consensus of avoiding a global warming of more than 2°C above
pre-industrial levels or the 1.5°C goal of 100 developing nations. The
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is increasing
everyday and, without significant reductions in emissions, will soon reach
levels at which the consequent changes in the Earth's climate will have
very serious, and potentially disastrous and irreversible, impacts.
Research papers and analysis released in the past few days by several of
the leading independent authorities on the question have looked at the
impact of the current proposals made by countries at the Copenhagen
Climate Summit. While there are differences in the details of the
findings, the overall messages from these studies are clear:
1. To have a reasonable chance of limiting global warming to 2°C, or
lower,, action at the high-end of current proposals and beyond will be
required. This means that the global deal needs a clear commitment to go
significantly above the most ambitious targets currently under discussion,
and hence stretch above those in the next ten days negotiations.
2. Such an agreement is possible; the levels of reduction required are
both technically and economically feasible - what is required is the
political will and leadership to lock-in these commitments in Copenhagen.
3. Achieving the high-end of the proposed reduction range, and beyond,
will also require strong financial and technology support for developing
countries.
4. If achieved, such an agreement would be a historic step forward and
keep hope alive that the world can contain long-term global warming to
below 2 or 1.5 degrees. If anything less than the high-end of current
proposals plus significant additional reductions is achieved, then climate
risks will be higher and it may not be possible to catch-up later - we may
miss the window of opportunity.
5. But Copenhagen is only the beginning of a journey - even if the
high-end of current proposals plus additional reductions are locked-in,
more work will be required. Each of the studies show that a gap in
mitigation may remain after Copenhagen against 2020 requirements. It is
thus essential that a Copenhagen agreement also include a "review and
strengthen" clause where countries review progress against the latest
scientific evidence and continue to adjust their commitments accordingly;
the first such review should end no later than 2015 and draw upon the next
assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, due for
conclusion in 2014.
"A deal that puts us on the path to having a good chance of avoiding
warming of 2 degrees, is possible - but the proposals on the table are not
quite there . We need to capture the high-end of those proposals and more
in Copenhagen, and then continue to ratchet-up commitments over time. We
have a historic opportunity in Copenhagen to increase climate security and
economic security for the world for generations to come."
This statement is supported by and may be attributed to:
- Nicholas Stern, Chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate
Change and the Environment
- Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP)
- Bill Hare, Director, Climate Analytics
- Niklas Höhne, Director Energy and Climate Policy, Ecofys
- Bas de Leeuw, Executive Director, Sustainability Institute, C-ROADS
- Andreas Merkl, Director of Global Initiatives at ClimateWorks and
Project Catalyst leader
- Jules Kortenhorst, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and Project
Catalyst core team member
Stern / UNEP Report:
http://www.unep.org/pdf/climatechange/ActionAndAmbitionForGlobalDealInCopenhagen.pdf
PIK / Climate Analytics / Ecofys Report:
http://www.climateactiontracker.org/
The Ecofys/Climate Analytics/PIK analysis is based on the Climate Action
Tracker using country studies (Ecofys), quantitative assessment (Climate
Analytics) and the PIK-PRIMAP model and data
(http://www.primap.org/)
Sustainability Institute / C-ROADS:
www.climatescoreboard.org
ECF / CW / Project Catalyst:
http://www.project-catalyst.info/images/publications/taking_stock.pdf
For more information please contact:
European Climate Foundation/ClimateWorks/Project Catalyst
Tom Brookes
Mobile: +32 476 777 779
Email: tom.brookes@europeanclimate.org
UN Environment Programme
Nick Nuttall
Mobile: +41 79 596 5737
Email: nick.nuttall@unep.org
Climate Analytics and PIK
Bill Hare
Mobile: +49 170 905 7015
Email: hare@pik-potsdam.de
Ecofys
Niklas Höhne
Mobile: +49 162 101 3420
Email: climateactiontracker@ecofys.com
Sustainability Institute/C-ROADS
Dr. Elizabeth Sawin
+1-603-715-0116
Email: bethsawin@sustainer.org
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Bob Ward
+44 20 7106 1236
Email: r.e.ward@lse.ac.uk
