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It also underlined that annual global emissions need to be
around 44 Gt of C02 equivalent by around that date in
order to have a running chance of achieving a trajectory that
halves those emissions by 2050 below 2005 levels.
The report also concluded that bridging the divide is
economically and technologically do-able if nations raise their
emission reduction ambitions and adopt more stringent low-carbon
policies across countries and sectors.
The key question of the Durban outcome is whether what has been
decided will match the science and lead to a peaking of global
emissions before 2020 to maintain the world on a path to keep a
temperature increase below 2° Celsius.
Achim Steiner, UN Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive
Director, said: "The outcomes of Durban provide a welcome boost
for global climate action. They reflect the growing, and in some
quarters unexpected, determination of countries to act
collectively. This provides a clear signal and predictability to
economic planners, businesses and investors about the future of
low-carbon economies. A number of specific commitments agreed in
Durban also indicate that previous decisions on financing,
technology and Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest
Degradation (REDD+) are moving to implementation."
"The big question many will ask is how this will translate into
actual emission reductions and by when? Whatever answer will
emerge in the coming months, Durban has kept the door open for the
world to respond to climate change based on science and common
sense rather than political expediency," he added.
By some estimates the cost of cutting emissions will cost four
times more beyond 2020 than they would cost today with the price
rising over time.
By some estimates the current emissions trajectories, unless
urgently reversed, could lead to a global temperature rise of 3.5°
Celsius or more sometime by the end of the century.
"The Government of South Africa and the Executive Secretary of
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change should be
congratulated for what has been achieved, given the low
expectations in the months and weeks before Durban," added Mr.
Steiner.
Today the European Union and several other countries agreed to
continue the Kyoto Protocol beyond 2012 if other governments,
including major emitters from developed and developing ones,
agreed to negotiate a new legally binding treaty with deeper
emission reductions by 2015 to come into force afterwards.
The continuation of the Kyoto Protocol during this new
negotiation phase means the provisions of this existing emission
reduction treaty, ranging from emissions trading to the Clean
Development Mechanism, will also continue providing some benefit
to the climate and the ambitions of developing economies over the
near term.
Green Climate Fund, Adaptation and Technology
Durban also made progress on the decision at last year's UN
climate convention meeting in Cancun, Mexico, to establish a Green
Climate Fund.
The operationalization of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) is a key
step forward as is reconfirmation of the commitment of mobilizing
US&dollar100 billion to support developing countries by 2020.
Readiness actions in developing countries will be a vital part
of helping prepare for the investments that will eventually flow
from the GCF. Other steps forward included operationalizing Cancun
agreements on adaptation and technology.
In Durban governments agreed to establish an Adaptation
Committee and a process that will lead to the establishment of a
Climate Technology Centre and Network with likely funding from the
Global Environment Facility.
"The movements forward on the Cancun agreements in respect to
adaptation and climate technology institutions are welcome, as is
the operationalization of the Green Climate Fund. But the core
question of whether more than 190 nations can cooperate in order
to peak and bring down emissions to the necessary level by 2020
remains open-it is a high risk strategy for the planet and its
people," said Mr. Steiner.
"Nationally many governments are acting as are companies,
cities and individual citizens. In 2010, over US&dollar210 billion
was invested in renewable energy, for example. But this bottom-up
approach needs a top to which it can aim-and a time line for
building that top is narrowing ever year," he added.
For More Information Please Contact
Nick Nuttall, UNEP Spokesperson and Acting Director of the
Division of Communications and Public Information, on Tel: +254
733 632755, Email: nick.nuttall@unep.org
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meeting that closed today in Durban, including an agreement to
negotiate a new and more inclusive treaty and the establishment of
a Green Climate Fund. But the outcome in the South African coastal city has left the
world with some serious and urgent challenges if a global
temperature rise is to be kept under 2° Celsius in the 21st
century. The 'Bridging the Emissions Gap' report, coordinated by the UN
Environment Programme (UNEP) with climate modeling centres across
the globe, underlined in the run-up to Durban that the best
available science indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to
peak before 2020.